1/31/25 7:00 AM - Lesezeit

On Uncertainty and Opportunities

Robert Karas

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

The year has barely begun, and the world is already full of uncertainties. Does that sound familiar? That feeling of uncertainty that seems to surface at the start of every year? Sometimes, it's political debates or the inauguration of new president. Other times, a technological breakthrough - such as recent advancements in artificial intelligence in China - causes market turbulence.

You might think it's never been more difficult to predict the future and position your portfolio accordingly. I would argue: It has never been any different.

Crises have always existed. Anyone reading about the 1950s, 1960s, or 1970s will come across the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Kennedy assassination, and much more. True tests of nerves for investors - yet they had to endure these challenges in the markets time and again.

Market Drop and Relief

How should we react to Trump? To Europe's weakening economy? To the disruptive forces of artificial intelligence? The provocative answer: "Not at all!" And that wouldn’t be entirely wrong. But it wouldn’t be entirely right either.

Of course, we closely monitor developments. AI, in particular, has the potential to revolutionize entire industries - some companies will soar, others will experience painful declines. This week, we witnessed strong market movements in individual stocks following a technological breakthrough in China (keyword: DeepSeek).

And it’s precisely in these moments that our clients glance nervously at their portfolios - only to breathe a sigh of relief. Our balanced strategy has cushioned the volatility. While some tech stocks came under pressure, companies in the fields of "Demographic Change" and "Evolution of the Consumer" made strong gains. Suddenly, solid dividend stocks were no longer considered boring but rather a stabilizing force in the portfolio.

Preparation is Everything

A well-thought-out investment strategy and consistent discipline are far more important than trying to predict an unpredictable future. In the end, it is not fear that moves us forward, but action. With that in mind, let’s remain well-prepared together - and look to the future with confidence.
 

Disclaimer: This is a marketing communication. Investment in financial instruments is subject to market risks. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results. The tax treatment depends on the personal circumstances of the respective client and may be subject to future changes. Bank Gutmann AG expressly points out that this document is intended exclusively for personal use and for information purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or passed on without the consent of Bank Gutmann AG. The content of this document is not based on the individual needs of individual investors (desired return, tax situation, risk tolerance, etc.), but is of a general nature and is based on the latest knowledge of the persons responsible for its preparation at the time of going to press. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to make an offer to buy or sell securities. The information required for disclosure pursuant to Section 25 of the Austrian Media Act can be found at the following web address: https://www.gutmann.at/impressum

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